CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2017-04-01T22:12:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2017 Apr 02 1305 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 70402
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Apr 2017, 1305UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Apr 2017 until 04 Apr 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Apr 2017  10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Apr 2017  10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Apr 2017  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 011
COMMENT: Solar activity has been enhanced over the past 24 hours, with
Active Region (AR) 2644 (McIntosh:Eao/Type:Beta) showing continued flux
emergence, and producing several C-class flares and three M-class flares;
an M4.4 class flare on 01-Apr-2017 peaking at 21:48 UT, an M5.3 flare on
02-Apr-2017 peaking at 08:04 UT and an M1.4 class flare peaking at 08:35
UT. The first M4.4 class flare had an associated Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME). Although there was evidence of a coronal wave on the Sun and the
extent of the CME became apparent as LASCO observations became available.
The AR 2644 was located at N16W53, and the CME was largely directed to the
north west, the CME had a speed of 495 km/s, the solar wind had a speed 550
km/s, and if a small component was to reach the Earth it would be expected
to arrive on 05-Apr-2017 early morning. The second flare M5.3 had an
associated dimming and coronal wave, LASCO chronograph observations are not
available yet. AR 2648 (McIntosh:Cro/Type:Beta) emerged yesterday and has
shown some evidence of growth, but still remains small. Solar activity is
expected to remain active over the next 24 hours, with AR 2645 producing
C-class and AR 2644 producing C-flares flares with the possibility of M,
X-class flares. There exists a small probability for the occurrence of a
week solar proton event due to the M class flares that took place at the
west side of the solar disk.
The solar wind speed, as recorded by the DSCOVR satellite, has been slowly
decreasing over the past 24 hours, from roughly 620 km/s to 490 km/s. The
total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, as recorded by the
DSCOVR satellite, has been around 5 nT, and the Bz component was largely
fluctuating between -3 nT and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions varied between
active and quiet over the past 24 hours, with the local (Dourbes) K-index
4-1  and the NOAA K-index 4-2. There is currently a small positive coronal
hole located at S15W30 which may increase solar wind speeds. The low solar
wind speed, combined with the low magnitude southward Bz indicates that
geomagnetic activity should be small with possible low level enhancements
over the next 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 084, BASED ON 28 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 01 Apr 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 101
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 021
AK WINGST              : 018
ESTIMATED AP           : 017
ESTIMATED ISN          : 069, BASED ON 33 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
01  2135  2148 2205 N16W53 M4.4 1F       08/2644      III/2V/3IV/3 
02  0433  0802 0813 ////// M5.6          ///////      
02  0750  0802 0813 N12W59 M5.3 2N       08/2644      III/2IV/1II/1 
END

BT

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